China Agriculture Outlook Report (2023-2032) Released-Aquatic feed and ruminant feed become new consumption growth points

The China Agricultural Outlook Report (2023-2032) released by the 2023 China Agricultural Outlook Conference summarizes

The China Agricultural Outlook Report (2023-2032) released by the 2023 China Agricultural Outlook Conference summarizes and reviews the market situation of 20 kinds (categories) of major agricultural products in 2022, looks forward to the production, consumption, trade and price trends of important time nodes in the next 10 years, especially in 2023, 2027 and 2032, and analyzes and discusses the existing uncertainties.

In 2022, China's agricultural and rural reform and development has achieved remarkable results, stabilizing the basic plate and tamping the ballast stone. It provides basic support for the overall economic and social stability. Grain adversity has brought another bumper harvest and output has reached a record high. The security foundation for the supply of food and important agricultural products continues to be solid.

In 2023, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity will be further improved, the foundation of food security will be further consolidated, and the construction of an agricultural power will start well. The stable and safe supply capacity of grain and important agricultural products has been enhanced, and new achievements have been made in the construction of diversified food supply system.

　　

 

China Agriculture Outlook Report (2023-2032)

Abstract: Specific prospects for different varieties

Feed: Production and consumption are growing steadily, and prices will run high. In the next 10 years, the diversification of feed raw materials and the continuous improvement of scientific and technological level will provide effective support for the sustainable development of the feed industry. With the penetration rate of industrial feed reaching a stable state, the growth rate of total output will slow down, and the output will reach 356.25 million tons in 2032, an increase of 26.0 over the base period, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7. With the improvement of breeding varieties and the progress of breeding technology, the feed conversion rate has increased, and the growth rate of feed consumption has slowed down, reaching 353.69 million tons in 2032, an increase of 26.1 over the base period. The consumption of pig feed, meat and poultry feed and egg and poultry feed has maintained a slow growth, and aquatic feed and ruminant feed have become new consumption growth points. During the outlook period, the prices of major feed ingredients are expected to remain at a high level overall.

Meat: Production and consumption maintained growth, while imports increased first and then decreased. In the outlook period, with the gradual transformation and upgrading of the meat industry, the supply capacity of the livestock and poultry industry will increase, and the output will maintain growth. It is estimated that the meat output will reach 99.94 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4.

Pork: production remained basically balanced, imports showed a downward trend. In the early stage of the outlook, the fluctuation range of pig supply will be narrowed; in the middle and late stage, affected by the increasingly reasonable layout of pig breeding, the steady improvement of production capacity, and the improvement of the standardization of designated slaughterhouses, the pig industry will operate healthily and smoothly, the pork production will increase steadily, and the quality and safety will be strongly guaranteed. It is estimated that pork production will reach 55.7 million tons in 2023, an increase of 0.5 over the previous year; due to factors such as the restoration of the international supply chain and the increase in catering and processing consumption, pork imports will increase to about 2 million tons. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of pork production in the next 10 years will be 1.2, and the output will reach 56.02 million tons in 2032; the demand for pork imports will steadily decline, and it will drop to 1.3 million tons in 2032. Affected by factors such as the optimization of meat demand structure and changes in population size and structure, pork consumption has shown a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, slowing down from the average annual growth rate in the base period, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8 per cent, and consumption will increase to 57.19 million tons by 2032.

Poultry meat: production and consumption maintained rapid growth, imports showed a steady and then downward trend. With the increase in the proportion of urban population, food processing and residents' consumption demand, people's pursuit of a healthy diet with high protein and low fat will continue to drive the consumption growth of poultry products; in the middle and later stages of the outlook, the consumption structure of residents' meat and the proportion of urban population gradually tend to be stable, and the growth rate of poultry consumption may slow down; in the outlook period, poultry consumption as a whole shows a growth trend, driven by consumer demand, poultry meat production maintained growth, with the growth rate first high and then low. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, poultry meat production will grow by 1.8 per cent annually, to 29.26 million tons in 2032, and consumption will grow by 1.6 per cent annually, to 29.43 million tons in 2032. Due to the short production cycle of poultry meat, the output growth is faster than the consumption growth, the import of poultry meat decreases steadily, and the export tends to increase steadily. It is estimated that the import volume and export volume in 2032 will be 1.09 million tons and 920000 tons respectively.

Beef and mutton: both production and consumption maintained growth, while imports showed an increasing trend. In the next 10 years, with the accelerated transformation of the production mode of cattle and sheep, the comprehensive production capacity, supply guarantee capacity and market competitiveness of beef and mutton will continue to improve. It is expected that the output of beef and mutton will continue to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2 and 1.3 respectively. In 2032, the output of beef and mutton will reach 7.84 million tons and 5.78 million tons respectively. Taking into account the impact of the upgrading of household consumption and the deepening of aging and the decline in population growth, consumption has maintained growth but slowed down, with consumption of beef and mutton of 10.96 million tons and 6.25 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. The growth rate of beef and mutton imports has slowed down, with beef imports of 3.13 million tons and mutton imports of 480000 tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8 and 2.4 respectively.

Poultry eggs: production growth slowed down, consumption increased first and then decreased. In the next 10 years, with the implementation of the high-quality development action of China's animal husbandry, the cultivation ability of improved breeds of egg and poultry, the management level of farms (households), and the prevention and control ability of egg and poultry diseases will be further improved. The level of intelligence and standardization has reached a higher level, which will strongly support the steady growth trend of egg production, reaching 35.8 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.4. Driven by the income growth of urban and rural residents, the optimization of food consumption structure, and the upgrading of consumer demand, the consumption of poultry eggs will maintain a small growth trend. However, as China's population enters negative growth and aging, the consumption demand of poultry eggs will decline. It is expected that the consumption of poultry eggs will reach a peak around 2030, about 35.72 million tons, and the consumption will drop to 35.55 million tons in 2032.

Dairy products: production and consumption are growing rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of milk sources is increasing. In the next 10 years, milk production will maintain the momentum of growth, and the self-sufficiency rate of milk sources will continue to increase. It is estimated that milk production will reach 56.02 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 4.0. The self-sufficiency rate of milk sources is over 71%. The consumption of dairy products increased steadily, and the per capita consumption increased significantly. It is estimated that milk consumption will reach 79.02 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3. Per capita consumption of milk is 55.9kg, an increase of 37.7 per cent over the base period. The domestic dairy supply gap still exists, and imports have maintained growth but the growth rate has slowed. It is estimated that the import volume of dairy products will increase to 23.2 million tons (equivalent to fresh milk) in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 1.6.

Aquatic products: production and consumption are growing, and imports are growing faster than exports. In the next 10 years, driven by demand, technology and policy, the output of aquatic products will maintain a small growth, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8, reaching 72.48 million tons in 2032. Of this total, aquaculture production grew at an average annual rate of 1.0 per cent, increasing its share of total production to 82.2 per cent, while fishing production remained stable. With the continuous growth of residents' income, the gradual upgrading of food consumption structure and more diversified circulation channels, the consumption of aquatic products continues to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0, reaching 76.21 million tons in 2032. Processing consumption is growing faster, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8, and will reach 32.9 million tons in 2032, accounting for 43.2 per cent of total consumption. During the outlook period, the supply and demand of aquatic products are basically balanced, and prices are generally stable and rising. The increased consumption preference of residents for aquatic products such as sea fishing and shrimp and crabs, the deepening and expansion of the construction of free trade zones and the development of e-commerce channels will drive the rapid growth of aquatic product imports, which will increase to 8.24 million tons in 2032. Exports are steadily increasing and will reach 4.51 million tons in 2032. Imports will grow significantly faster than exports.

Grain: Production capacity has steadily increased, with production growing faster than consumption. In the next 10 years, China's comprehensive grain production capacity will continue to improve, the sown area will increase steadily, the planting structure will continue to be optimized, and the grain production capacity will increase steadily. The average annual growth rate of grain sown area is 0.3 per cent. The average annual growth rate of 0.9 per unit area is the main contributing factor to the increase in grain production. The grain yield will reach 423kg/mu (6345kg/ha) in 2032. Grain output has increased steadily and is expected to reach 0.767 billion tons by 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2. Due to the huge domestic population base and the continuous upgrading of the consumption structure, food demand will continue to grow rigidly, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent and a grain consumption of 0.867 billion tons by 2023. The tight balance between food supply and demand will become a long-term situation, but the pressure on the balance between production and demand will ease, and the food self-sufficiency rate will increase to 88.4 per cent. The scale of grain trade has generally declined, but grain imports will still play an important role in optimizing the domestic supply structure and adjusting surplus and shortage, and the scale of trade will continue to remain high, with grain imports of 0.122 billion tons by 2032, an average annual decline of 2.2 per cent.

Rice: production and consumption remain basically stable, export competitiveness continues to improve. The absolute safety of food rations has always been the top priority of national food security. In the next 10 years, rice production will maintain a stable situation, the sown area will decrease steadily, the yield per unit area will increase steadily, and the output will be stable at about 210 million tons. With the continuous optimization and upgrading of residents' consumption structure, rice consumption first increased and then decreased, of which the absolute amount and proportion of edible consumption decreased steadily, and the overall loose pattern of rice supply and demand remained unchanged. With the continuous improvement of domestic rice quality rate and the rapid increase of feed grain demand, the import of refined rice for variety adjustment will remain basically stable, and the import of broken rice with price advantage will increase. At the same time, the export competitiveness of domestic high-quality rice will continue to strengthen, and the export volume will increase steadily. With the continuous improvement of the domestic rice market system and the continuous enhancement of the national macro-control capacity, the rice market will run smoothly.

Wheat: The production and supply structure has been continuously optimized, and the import demand has shown a clear downward trend. In the next 10 years, the sown area of wheat will show a steady and slight downward trend. With the increase of wheat yield per unit area, the output will increase steadily, reaching 143.9 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5. The price ratio of wheat and corn has returned to normal, and the consumption of wheat feed has continued to decline. However, with the rapid development of China's wheat deep processing industry, industrial consumption has gradually increased, and the total wheat consumption has shown a steady and slightly increasing trend. It is expected to be 141.3 million tons in 2032. The average annual growth rate is 0.1. China's wheat industrial structure continues to be optimized, the planting area and output of high-quality wheat continue to increase, the number of special varieties of wheat has increased, and the dependence on imported high-quality wheat has declined. It is expected that the overall import volume of wheat will show a downward trend, and the import volume of wheat will decline year by year. It is expected to be 6.02 million tons in 2032, an average annual decrease of 4.3.

Corn: Production continues to grow, and the relationship between supply and demand for corn will gradually shift from tight to basic balance. In the next 10 years, the sown area of corn will increase first and then stabilize, and is expected to reach 659.05 million mu (43.94 million hectares) in 2032. With the implementation of the corn yield improvement project, the yield per unit area is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.7. The output will steadily increase to 328.69 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.0. The growth rate of corn consumption has slowed down, and the proportion of industrial consumption has declined. It is estimated that the consumption will reach 332.35 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5. Corn supply and demand will be loosened year by year, and the self-sufficiency rate of corn will reach 96.9 at the end of the period. Imports will continue to decline and will be reduced to 6.85 million tons in 2032.

Soybean: area, production are increasing year by year, soybean self-sufficiency rate will be significantly improved. With the improvement of soybean production support policies and the further optimization of soybean industry development environment, soybean sown area will increase year by year in the next 10 years, and is expected to reach 0.201 billion mu (13.39 million hectares) in 2032, an increase of 40.7 compared with the base period. Biological breeding and its industrialization are vigorously promoted, and soybean yield is expected to grow by 3.4 annually. Soybean production will grow by 7.0 annually and will reach 36.75 million tons by 2032. Due to the slowdown in the growth rate of crushing consumption demand, edible consumption has increased year by year, and soybean consumption has steadily increased. It is estimated that it will be 119.47 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6. The soybean self-sufficiency rate will continue to increase in the outlook period, reaching about 30.0 percent in 2032. With the increase of self-sufficiency rate, soybean imports showed a downward trend.

Oilseed: Production continued to grow, and the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil increased steadily. In the next 10 years, China's oil production will continue to grow, benefiting from variety improvement, resource utilization improvement and technology integration promotion and application. Oil production is expected to reach 46.68 million tons in 2032, an increase of 29.0 per cent over the base period and an average annual growth of 2.6 per cent. Affected by the decrease of total population, the slowdown of economic growth and urbanization, and the close saturation of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption, the growth rate of edible vegetable oil consumption of Chinese residents will continue to slow down. The consumption of edible vegetable oil is expected to reach 37.56 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent, lower than the average annual growth rate of 1.3 per cent in the past 10 years. In the next 10 years, China will continue to use the international market to meet and optimize the domestic supply of edible vegetable oil, but the import of oilseeds and edible vegetable oil will stabilize. China's self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil is gradually increasing and is expected to reach 43.8 per cent in 2032.

Cotton: production steady slightly decreased, consumption and imports showed a downward trend. In the outlook period, due to the continuous rise of labor and land costs, the tightening of water and soil resources, and the low comparative benefit of cotton planting, farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has declined, and the cotton planting area continues to decline. Cotton quality to meet the needs of textile transformation and upgrading, yield steadily improved, quality continued to improve. It is estimated that cotton output will be 5.79 million tons in 2032, with an average annual decline of 0.1 percent. China will continue to maintain its position as the world's largest cotton consumer and exporter of textiles and clothing, but the intensification of global trade protectionism, industrial transfer and chemical fiber substitution will lead to a downward trend in cotton consumption, which is expected to be 7.45 million tons in 2032, with an average annual decline of 0.3 percent. Cotton production is steadily declining, consumer demand is declining, and imports are decreasing accordingly, high-grade cotton is still the focus of imports, import sources diversified development, is expected to reduce to 1.7 million tons in 2032, an average annual decline of 2.0.

Sugar: Production is increasing and consumption growth is slowing. In the next 10 years, affected by the relatively low efficiency of sugar planting and the competition of other alternative crops, the sugar planting area in China will decline steadily. It is estimated that the sugar planting area will be 22.14 million mu (1.48 million hectares) in 2032, with an average annual decrease of 0.2. However, with the promotion of improved seed and method technology, the promotion of mechanization of the whole production process and the strengthening of fine production management, the per unit yield of sugar will be increased. It is estimated that the sugar output will reach 11.04 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8. Due to the negative growth of China's population and the deepening of population aging, the growth rate of sugar consumption has slowed down. It is estimated that sugar consumption will be 16.44 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7. Under the combined effect of the limited growth potential of domestic sugar production, the continuous increase of rural sugar consumption and the rapid development of food and beverage industry, China's sugar import is expected to reach 5.87 million tons in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 0.4.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China

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